Who will stand against Narendra Modi in next Lok Sabha elections in 2019?
There has been just one election when the party got the resounding verdict. Rajiv Gandhi had led Congress party to the electoral victory at 1984 elections. Elections were held very soon after the assassination of Indira Gandhi and nation still mourning their departed leader and voted for son and the party. Other election contested in similar tragic situation was Lok Sabha Election of1991 when Rajiv died in the suicide bomb that was attacked by the LTTE when first stage of the polling was over. And this time the Congress Party didn’t win majority but formed a Government with PV Narasimha Rao as their Prime Minister. Both these elections weren’t normal. In order, to win over 400 seats in normal election is the tall order. Let’s now look at National Scenario and hardly any of the National Party has popular face as the candidate.
Indian National Congress actually has worst candidate ever, that has bitten dust repeatedly in the elections. Less said about them, better.
Aam Aadmi Party’s rise seemed like the grave threat to the BJP and Arwind Kejriwal was also supposed to give huge opposition to the Modi’s popularity. However his unending drama and theatrics soon flushed down his popularity in toilet. He is now no more reliable in eyes of the public like he once was. And his party lost by-elections the last week at Rajouri Garden seat of Delhi. This was for first time in the history of India where the incumbent Party’s candidate have lost the deposit in by-election.
Nitish Kumar, although did very good in Bihar, has very little popularity outside their own State, particularly in the Southern parts of country. Same is a case for many other local leaders such as Naveen Patnaik, Chandrababu Naidu or Mamta Banerjee who are very good in the respective states however do not have a lot of National Popularity.
Some strong local leaders that can aim for the PM candidacy have lost the credibility among the public like Akhilesh, Mulayam Singh, Sharad Pawar, Mayawati, etc.
With the above analysis and discussion, what I want to conclude is to beat the BJP in eleçtions, pre-requisite is “Having highly popular leader” at opposition. Fortunately, right now no leader enjoys this popularity and the public support that Modi does throughout a Nation, no matter whether it is parties in the Opposition or within NDA. Popularity of Mod has raised to heights of Rajeev and Indira Gandhi that enjoyed a similar type of and even more popularity compared to Modi does today. Thus, answer is, the party that will field the strong and the popular leader with the Pan India appeal for Modi at 2019, is party that might give fight to BJP that right now is not really happening.
With two years and less left for 2019 elections of Lok Sabha, there is the strong sense of the apprehension among the senior ranks in Congress party that has lost the significant tracts to Bharatiya Janata Party since uprising of right-wing party. With Modi’s ascent to PM in 2014, colour of political map of India has changed drastically, and with saffron party controlling their operations not just at Centre but also in over 16 states, leaving the main opposition, Congress, in pool of worries.In concluded Assembly Elections 2017, held in 5 states across country, BJP added little more bricks to the Mission 2019; while Congress, led by the ailing Sonia Gandhi & Vice President Rahul, just managed to claim their victory in Punjab – the mere consolation compared to UP that is India’s highly populous state with the estimated of over 403 seats, from which BJP claimed over 325.
What has led oldest party of India that led freedom movement, towards the steady decline? Over years, the senior political analysts actually have reasoned how Congress was responsible for the demise. After staying at power for a decade from year 2004 to 2014, this left doors open for the aggressive BJP – that was led by aggressive leader Modi – to intrude as well as paint the territory with symbolic saffron colour. According to recent analysis on the Congress’ downfall by the political analyst, Congress that enjoyed the unrivaled dominance for decade, has been reduced to the rubble.
Duo was of a view that major chunk of tectonic shift in the Indian politics, which started at 2014 – is credited to Modi, leader with larger image as well as impeccable rhetorical prowess. In the mean time, Congress – rattled by long list of the exposed scams – knew that they will go downhill but were not left with any solution, all thanks to anti-incumbency sentiment of people of India. At 2014, democratic party made a way for right-wing of politics and take course at Delhi –game changing factor at an arena of the modern Indian politics.
Not proper strategy
As BJP kept planting their seeds, and nailing one or the other scheme, Congress party president was very busy bursting ‘balloons’ of the BJP’s misconducts. And Gandhi continued with the scathing attacks on the BJP leaders instead regrouping or chalking out the plan for future. This was driven by a lack of the visionary strategy, party suffered from the internal disagreements, and failing to reverse the electoral calamities, which was witnessed from 2014. Congress ruled over 13 states at 2014 and it has now the roots in only six states –Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Meghalaya, Karnataka, Mizoram, and Bihar as a part of coalition between 3 parties. Whereas Modi government kept on hitting bulls eye with the persistent efforts of connecting to the people, Congress then kept on losing the bastions. Although Congress had the chance to reverse the political misfortunes in aftermath of the Modi’s demonetisation, party failed in chalking out the clear strategy that will bank on perils caused because of note ban move. In spite of Rahul Gandhi’s attempts of disgruntling BJP before Assembly elections, he just managed to make baseless allegations and without substantiating claims with the facts.