Which party will win the next Lok Sabha elections in India in 2019?
On back of the fairly decent performance in local elections in some states and before elections in some key states that are lined up in next 12 months, so how big the leg up does victory in UP assembly elections gives out to BJP? Now 2019 is secured for BJP. There’s not too much of doubt that BJP may win 2019 elections on its own or have the majority in Lok Sabha. What’s interesting about UP result.
Prime Minister can do demonetization as he carried this out as the executive action but suppose you reform labour market, banking or other reforms, whole welfare state has entitlement for payments, this will need majority in both the houses. What has demonetization proved is Narendra Modi wants reform; he will not avoid that and it is the big opportunity on till end of 2019 cycle. They have secured a good and economically efficient government.
Whereas one of expert noted that electoral results of concluded Assembly polls in 5 states show that Lok Sabha election 2014 results weren’t the aberration, some noted that Modi will continue to lead after 2019. Assembly elections don’t signal much of the change. Results of Uttar Pradesh elections showed that 2014 general elections weren’t the “aberration. This was the big win for BJP. The candidate won with larger margin of the victory when compared to two previous winners – Samajwadi Party and BSP.
Modi has established by the election as “clear & favourite winner” for year 2019 elections. Riding on a momentum of the historic win in UP, Bharatiya Janata Party is gearing for next general election, and more than 2 years away. PM Modi, addressing the meeting of BJP parliamentary party at Thursday, asked their party members of the Parliament or other functionaries to get prepared to work a little harder and stay at their toes. PM Modi said in one of his speech ‘Na Baithunga, Nahi Baithne Dunga (I won’t rest, nor I will let others to rest). We are asked to get back in the constituencies and inform people about various development works of this government.
UP elections, growth and reforms
At a same meeting, Amit Shah the president of BJP said biggest challenge before party is 2019 general election. And he said BJP must aim to return at Lok Sabha with the bigger mandate than they won at 2014, while it became first party in thirty years to clinch on its own. In February and March elections to 5 state assemblies, BJP won the landslide in UP and Uttarakhand as well as took Manipur and Goa in the close contests with Congress when losing Punjab, and where it was at the coalition with Shiromani Akali Dal. BJP’s performance has actually left the opposition parties—including Congress that just managed to win in Punjab—in complete disarray.
Interestingly, BJP leadership is making plans of improving party’s performance at Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Telangana, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and where it didn’t manage to make the mark in 2014 Lok Sabha. Importance of the states are understood from a fact that the 5 states, all along with Union territory of the Puducherry, have total of over 123 seats in Lok Sabha, 22% of total seats. With UP election victory, Modi expands the brand equity to its heartland
BJP leadership is simultaneously making some plans for assembly polls due at 9 states before general election. States include the BJP-ruled Gujarat, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh and the Congress-governed Karnataka & Himachal Pradesh. The BJP leaders are very confident that party may perform very well in states, which are under the BJP control as well as hopeful of wresting HP and Karnataka.
Gujarat is the prestige issue for BJP and party can make all efforts to retain its power. They have the stable leadership in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh and they hope anti incumbency will work against Congress party at Karnataka and HP to help them to win two states.
One 1 year of NDA government is scrutinized and dissected by everyone so we will not delve very deep in it so just some words on people running this government.
Modi: What more you can demand from a person that works for 18hours a day? He’s incorruptible, determined, visionary, decisive as well as hard task master and who will drive notoriously stubborn bureaucracy.
Cabinet: I will not take recent insinuations at Sushma Swaraj seriously, it is a scam hungry presstitute of Indian media that are playing own TRP games as well as tarnishing the reputation of best foreign minister that India had. Manohar Parrikar, Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh, Venkhaiah Naidu, Suresh Prabhu, Piyush Goyal, are competent and committed ministers that have performed very admirably and are better than intellectually arrogant Kapil Sibals, Chidambarams, Shindes and Salman Khurshids of Congress party.
LEGITIMACY OF OPPOSITION PARTIES
Congress: Rahul may try his best with the limited competence, EQ, IQ, mojo to revive congress however he just cannot do 2 things that can give his party legitimacy; and remove himself all along with Nehru and Gandhi dynasty from congress and remove sycophants, proxies, cronies, chachas, chamchas, and power brokers from party from a party that have built the decades political careers just by eulogizing clan, parivar, dynasty instead serving Indian people.
Aam Aadmi Party: This party is much better positioned for the expansion across length and breadth for the country however in the pure electoral terms this just can’t win 2019 elections as with over four years left for Lok Sabha polls and time is short for command pan India dominance. Furthermore, ” party with the difference” and leader that says “I am cleaner than you and will dish out the certificates of corruption and honesty “. This particular aura of the self righteousness, pomp and ego coupled with the dictatorial, autocratic streaks will always lead to Somnath Bharti and Jitender Tomar type fiascos that dent party’s credibility and reputation.
Communist Parties: Did I need to mention the state of affairs? It is decimated in Bengal and dwindling their presence in rest of India. And with just Tripura and Kerala to play with, the parties can’t make the impact in national polls.
Janata Parivar: These casteist parties disappeared as soon they appear because of rejection and infighting by people.
Do not make any mistake
2019 represents the existential moment for many parties. Suppose Prime Minister Modi leads BJP to victory at 2019, it can spell an end of dynastic Congress. Rahul will be 54 at 2024. He will by then spent over 20 unsuccessful years in the politics. Sonia will be 77 & no longer key factor in the Indian politics. Priyanka, 53, will remain Congress’ wild card. However by 2024 playing this might be very little or too late.
Some other parties in Opposition recognise danger of the second successive victory to Modi. This explains near hysteria PM demonetization scheme has actually caused. Only Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar & Chief Minister of Odisha Naveen Patnaik among the Opposition leaders have actually grasped full political ramifications in Modi’s war on the black money. They all know that economic benefits — and it can be considerable — are been dwarfed by political implications.
In country where the poverty in different degrees afflicts half of a billion people, emotional appeal for punishing the black money hoarders or tax evading millionaires actually has the irresistible moral appeal. For example, Nitish Kumar has used his morality in the governance to burnish political career and he has legislated it against benami properties of Bihar and banned the liquor. JD(U) broke ranks with rest of its Opposition over the demonetization. Nitish Kumar is talking to the Finance Minister Jaitley about the joint initiative to actually forge the digital-pay economy.
So, hone of this recommends that Nitish JD(U) is going to return to NDA fold. To squelch the growing murmurs of Kumar’s bromance with Modi, Bihar minister declared: “Central government’s actions actually are creating a little fear among the minorities. Centre is weakening the federal power of states. There are some people who talk about the ghar wapsi and the cow protection as well as are spreading hatred. However we are working hard to achieve the goals and may continue to do this in Bihar.” Others from party feel that there’s the pressing need to take one step back or fill cracks that are left open in past. From now, there’s the huge gap among grassroot level politicians of the party and ones sitting at New Delhi, filling that must be one of borderline goals of a party.
Before 4 months, unanimous recommendation of Congress Working Committee to elevate Rahul to post of a party chief wasn’t well received by the party members. Whereas change is totally inevitable, party continues to procrastinate. An only reason for delay in appointment is because of current mood in the Congress. Some of the state level leaders openly have warned of the large-scale “exodus” in case Mr Gandhi becomes the party chief.